Marketplace Monitoring¶
What metrics to watch, what thresholds trigger action, and who's responsible.
Why the Marketplace Matters¶
The marketplace generates ~$1.1M/year in direct fee revenue. That's not why it matters. The marketplace is the confidence engine that makes every other part of the economy work:
- Packs lose value without secondary liquidity (97% of first purchases are packs)
- Challenges become inaccessible if required moments can't be found quickly
- Whales can't recycle capital (top 500 buy $212M, sell $169M — they need sell-side liquidity)
- Reactivation fails if lapsed collectors return to a dead marketplace
- Trophy transactions (Cooper Flagg at $285, Curry Legendary at $17K) ARE the marketing
Key Metrics Dashboard¶
Volume & Activity¶
| Metric | Current (Mar 2026) | Trend | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unique marketplace buyers/month | 3,516 | Down from 7,070 (Mar 2024) | Alert if <3,000 |
| Unique marketplace sellers/month | 5,849 | Sellers consistently outnumber buyers | Monitor ratio |
| Marketplace GMV/month | $1.81M | Down from $5.06M (Mar 2024) | Alert if <$1.5M |
| Sell-through rate | 27-43% | 73% of listings never sell | Alert if <25% |
| Bid-ask spread | 0.29-0.80x | Buyers/sellers disagree by 20-70% | Monitor compression |
Segment Health¶
| Metric | What to Watch | Why |
|---|---|---|
| XL count (weekly) | Point-in-time XL users | Below 100 = crisis. Currently ~109. |
| XL spend velocity | Weekly spending by XL segment | Deceleration precedes downgrade |
| L→XL upgrade rate | Weekly transition probability | Currently 8.1% (NBA). Below 5% = pipeline problem. |
| Borderline 71 | Users oscillating XL/L weekly | Stabilizing them = ~$400K/month protected volume |
| S weekly churn | Percentage of S segment leaving | Currently 43%. Structural, not fixable short-term. |
Pipeline Conversion¶
| Metric | Current | Target | Finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marketplace discovery (cheap packs) | 17% | >25% | F013: 83% never find marketplace |
| Marketplace discovery ($50+ packs) | 46% | >55% | F022: $50+ packs are the gateway |
| 7-day MP transaction rate (new users) | Low | 4+ txns = whale trajectory | F022: 2-5x L/XL rate |
| W0 conversion | 12.3% | Maintain >10% | F011: 4x improvement from positive EV |
Monitoring Cadence¶
Daily¶
- [ ] Check total marketplace volume and buyer count
- [ ] Monitor for unusual price movements in high-value moments
- [ ] Review customer support tickets for marketplace issues
Weekly (Guy Bennett)¶
- [ ] Segment transition report: S→M→L→XL movement
- [ ] XL count and spend velocity
- [ ] Pack sell-through analysis
- [ ] Challenge completion rates
- [ ] Reactivation count (lapsed users returning)
Monthly (Matt + Guy)¶
- [ ] Full pipeline health review against data science findings
- [ ] Revenue vs. budget comparison
- [ ] Marketplace health by product (NBA, NFL, Disney)
- [ ] Supply health: listing inventory vs. sales velocity
Marketplace Health by Product¶
NBA Top Shot¶
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Common median price | $1-2 | 2.5M listings = 45 months of inventory |
| Rare median price | $9-17 | Challenge-driven demand |
| Legendary median price | $90-$2,834 | Trophy assets, narrative drivers |
| Pack-only buyers (never use MP) | 58% | The dead-end pipeline problem |
| Seller:buyer ratio | ~2:1 | Sell-side pressure |
Supply Issues¶
- Commons: 2.5M listings, 27% sell-through. Mass burns have zero impact (F018). Set Challenges are the effective supply reduction.
- Rares: Challenge-driven demand creates targeted liquidity. Improving rare liquidity lowers challenge entry barriers.
- Legendaries: Trophy assets that set the narrative. Price collapse here weakens pack psychology.
When to Escalate¶
| Signal | Severity | Action |
|---|---|---|
| XL count drops below 100 | Critical | Immediate whale retention intervention (VIP deposit match, personal outreach) |
| Weekly marketplace GMV drops >30% without seasonal explanation | High | Investigate cause. Check for marketplace bugs, supply issues. |
| Sell-through drops below 25% | High | Review pricing strategy. Check positive EV compliance. |
| 3+ consecutive weeks of XL spend deceleration | High | Trigger whale decay dashboard. Personal outreach to decelerating whales. |
| Off-season XL loss exceeds 25% by end of June | Critical | Deploy full off-season intervention: IRL events, VIP deposit matches, exclusive content |
Revenue Metrics: Always Use Net¶
Buyback Distortion
Buybacks consumed 70.1% of Q2 2025 gross marketplace revenue (F019). Always use net revenue in analysis. Three revenue definitions exist:
- GMV — total buyer spend (marketplace health metric)
- Gross — Dapper take before fees (internal tracking)
- Net — after processing fees, before buybacks (financial planning)
When someone cites "$22.2M FY26 revenue," that is NET. After buybacks, the true bottom line is significantly lower.
Data Access¶
All marketplace metrics are available in BigQuery production_sem_open.* tables. Key tables:
| Table | Contents |
|---|---|
userprofile_transactions_by_buyer_seller_daily_rollup |
Daily buyer/seller activity, buyback amounts |
user_spend_segmentation_history |
Weekly segment assignments and transitions |
clientmetric_w0_conversion_rate |
W0 conversion tracking |
See Data Infrastructure for query access.