NBA Top Shot — Product Roadmap¶
Timeline Anchors¶
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 | Revenue Pacing meeting | Q1 results: $5.1M. TST UX overhaul directed. Atlas migration greenlit. |
| Apr 14 | Play-In Tournament begins | Prediction Game launches. Deposit match goes live ($50 min, 7-day). First reactivation emails in the wild since Apr 7. |
| Apr 17 | Rakuten dark launch target | Internal-only test of Rakuten Japan storefront. Spencer Bogad DRI. |
| Apr 18 | Round 1 begins | First Playoffs Edition drops. NPRR measurement starts. Challenge visibility banner for returning users. |
| ~May 1 | NFLPA imagery blackout | Player imagery may need removal from existing moments. Legal review pending. |
| ~May 4 | Conference Semis begin | NPRR target: 130%+. IPFS blog publication window opens if Round 1 traction confirms. |
| May 4 | Star Wars Day | First high-volume Rakuten test (Disney product, but tests shared infrastructure). |
| ~May 18 | Conference Finals begin | NPRR target: 150%. Content volume doubles per game. Founder thesis publication window. |
| ~Jun 4 | NBA Finals begin | Peak attention. Every drop is Tier A. |
| ~Jun 15 | NBA Finals end | Post-playoffs transition. Off-season planning begins. |
| Aug 2026 | D23 Expo | Disney activation. Not NBA-specific but shares team resources. |
Now Shipping (In Progress)¶
1. Playoffs Reactivation Campaign¶
- Owner: Guy Bennett (targeting/data), Sam Williams (content/copy), Spencer Bogad (press/creators), Dan Carreiro (product/predictions)
- Status: ACTIVE — Week -1 executing as of Apr 7
- Target: Apr 7 (Wave 1 to 737 hottest former XLs) through Jun 15
- Detail: Three-wave reactivation across ~3K former XLs. 737 Q4 2025 lapsed ($54K avg lifetime) get personalized A/B/C email test. Expand to 744 mid-tier, then 1,519 remaining. Weekly optimization loop on messaging based on conversion data.
- Scoreboard: NPRR 150% for L+XL, drop-over-drop
- Budget: $50-100K total across 10 weeks
- Blocker: Email/push tooling access unconfirmed. Send capability needs verification. (Source: CMO Triage, Apr 1; Playoffs Playbook)
2. Top Shot This: Playoffs Edition¶
- Owner: Sam Williams (content), Prapanch Swamy (production), Matt Schorr (economics)
- Status: ACTIVE — pre-production complete, first drops Apr 18
- Target: Apr 18 through Finals
- Detail: Open edition + /5, /25, /99 parallels + 1-of-1s. Same-night drops tied to playoff games. Every 1-of-1 pull generates 10+ pieces of content. Nightly content cadence: pre-game predictions, live-game posts (3-5 per game), post-game drop announcement, TikTok/Short within 2 hours, morning recap email.
- Source: Playoffs Marketing Playbook; CMO Strategic Analysis, Conflict Resolution #1
3. Prediction Game¶
- Owner: Dan Carreiro (product delivery), Sam Williams (promotion)
- Status: Launching Apr 14
- Target: Live for Play-In, runs through Finals
- Detail: Free-to-play mass market. Community consensus data published pre-game. Shareable result cards. 10-game streak = guaranteed Moment. Key open question: do prediction winners earn packs or marketplace credit? Without a collecting bridge, predictions generate engagement but zero revenue. Decision required from Matt + Dan before Apr 14.
- Source: CMO Triage, Apr 1; Playoffs Playbook
4. April Deposit Match¶
- Owner: Spencer Bogad (lead), Dan Carreiro, Kenny Zamora
- Status: ACTIVE — goes live Apr 14
- Target: Apr 14 through NFL Draft timing
- Detail: 7-day campaign. $50 minimum (down from $100). Automated tailored emails based on collector journey. Active popup campaigns on Top Shot site. Spencer's first deposit match as External Marketing lead.
- Source: Revenue Pacing Dossier, Apr 7
5. TST UX Overhaul¶
- Owner: Eric Lin + Matt Schorr
- Status: DIRECTED — CEO priority as of Apr 7
- Target: Immediate (before current TST expires)
- Detail: TST UX overhaul directed — confusing numbers (129 vs 9999), parallel chase not visible above fold, streamlining needed. All FE engineers must purchase TST packs and report friction. Brake flow mechanism (Austin Samsel's work) to be reused for streamlined experience. Leon Li has Hotjar-type analytics prototype ready to push.
- Source: Revenue Pacing Dossier, Apr 7
6. TST to Atlas Migration¶
- Owner: Matt Schorr + Eric Lin
- Status: DIRECTED — CEO wants immediate start
- Target: No firm date; "immediately begin"
- Detail: First NBA production feature on Atlas infrastructure. Quest already on Atlas without issues. Jim Wheaton's campaign builder (WYSIWYG editor) demoed to Leon, Spencer, Jordan — 2 PRs pending for v1. Enables AI-driven autonomous experimentation. Atlas = the path to "wake up in the morning to an updated app with feature-flagged features."
- Source: Revenue Pacing Dossier, Apr 7; Leadership Sync, Apr 7
7. Video Content Pipeline¶
- Owner: Sam Williams
- Status: Template sprint targeting completion by Apr 10
- Target: 3-4 videos/day during playoffs
- Detail: 5 reusable templates: pack drop announcement (15s), pull moment highlight (30s), price alert (15s), challenge spotlight (20s), Prediction Game CTA (15s). Blocker was process, not talent. Templates run for entire playoffs — 1-2 week investment for 8 weeks of daily content.
- Source: CMO Triage, Apr 1; Playoffs Playbook
8. Creator/Streamer Seeding¶
- Owner: Spencer Bogad
- Status: Briefings scheduled Apr 8-12
- Target: 5-10 active creators streaming playoff pack openings
- Detail: Identify top 10 by audience. DM with playoffs format details. Top 3-5 responders get $500-$1K in Top Shot credit. Total budget: $2,500-$5,000. Not a formal creator program — informal seeding. The formal program with affiliate economics is Phase 2.
- Source: Playoffs Playbook
Next Up (Planned)¶
9. Challenge Visibility — Permanent Fix¶
- Owner: Dan Carreiro (product)
- Status: PLANNED — playoffs gets a banner; permanent fix is post-playoffs
- Target: Post-June 2026
- Detail: Move from returning-user banner (Apr 18) to structural change: challenges surfaced on homepage, in post-pack flow, in marketplace browse. When a user pulls a Moment that's part of a challenge, show the challenge immediately. Currently only 750 lapsed $1K+ users even see challenges. 87% of active users never see them despite the 20x spend multiplier. (Source: CMO Strategic Analysis, Priority 7)
10. Pack-to-Marketplace Bridge¶
- Owner: TBD (product)
- Status: PLANNED — post-playoffs
- Target: H2 2026
- Detail: Post-pack-opening screen showing marketplace value, one-tap listing, set completion path. Converts the 83% dead end (pack buyers who never touch marketplace) into the beginning of a collecting journey. Users with 4+ marketplace transactions in first 7 days become L/XL at 2-5x rate. (Source: CMO Strategic Analysis, Priority 8)
11. Baller Status Progression System¶
- Owner: Matt Schorr (review), finance team (budget), data team (baselines)
- Status: STUCK — awaiting review + finance/data inputs
- Target: Was pre-playoffs (missed). Now TBD.
- Detail: Progression system designed. Blocked on three inputs: (1) analysis doc review (pending since early March), (2) points budget + IFRS 15 analysis from finance, (3) retention baselines + tier thresholds from data. Open prerequisite: resolve Points vs. $FAN currency question. (Source: PRIORITIES.md, Project 8 + Backlog #4)
12. WNBA / Caitlin Clark Dutch Auction¶
- Owner: Eric Lin (tech), Matt Schorr (product)
- Status: APPROVED IN CONCEPT — requires tech build
- Target: WNBA season 2026
- Detail: Dutch auction starting at $1M, declining through season. Highest Caitlin Clark sale: one-of-one Panini at $660K. Starting above for headline value. Requires meeting with Clark's team within 2 weeks. Dutch auction tech also enables future marketplace innovations. Sam Williams flying to rookie event Friday for autograph/signing videos. (Source: Revenue Pacing Dossier, Apr 7)
13. Cross-Product Nudges¶
- Owner: TBD (marketing content, not engineering)
- Status: PLANNED
- Target: H2 2026
- Detail: 12% cross-product adoption, 16x spend multiplier (95x for three-product users). When an NBA collector logs in during NFL season, surface NFL ALL DAY. Marketing content, not engineering. NBATS is the gateway: NBATS-to-NFLAD crossover (14,211 users) is 5x NBATS-to-Disney (2,704). (Source: CMO Strategic Analysis, Priority 10; F001)
14. Collector Storytelling Program¶
- Owner: Spencer Bogad (coordination), Sam Williams (content)
- Status: PLANNED — first spotlight targeting Week of Apr 14
- Target: Weekly during playoffs, ongoing after
- Detail: Luke McIntyre confirmed 6-7 figure collectors willing to talk. Weekly profiles: real person, real story, favorite Moment. Player leaderboard recognition pitched to teams. Experiential reward stories (meeting Magic Johnson, courtside access) as multi-platform content. (Source: CMO Strategic Analysis, Priority 9)
15. Rakuten Japan Storefront¶
- Owner: Spencer Bogad
- Status: Contracts finalizing, April 17 dark launch target
- Target: Revenue flowing by June 30
- Detail: Third-party Asia distribution. CEO frames as "$10M/year thesis." Internal dark launch first, buy 100 items to test. May 4th (Star Wars) = first high-volume test. Partner execution track record being evaluated. Luke McIntyre tagged for KOL network distribution support. (Source: Revenue Pacing Dossier, Apr 7)
Blocked / At Risk¶
| Item | Blocker | Owner | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baller Status | Analysis review + finance/data inputs pending. Points vs $FAN unresolved. | Product | Was the pre-playoffs progression ship. Timeline TBD. |
| Reactivation email execution | Email/push tooling access unconfirmed. Send capability needs verification. | Matt Schorr (to confirm) | Entire 3K-user reactivation play dies without email tooling. |
| Prediction-to-collecting bridge | Product decision unmade: do prediction winners earn packs/credit? | Matt + Dan | Without bridge, Prediction Game = entertainment, not revenue funnel. |
| NFL Q2 revenue | NFLPA blackout May 1. Player imagery removal unclear. Resolution expected before season; backup = team-moments-only product. | Spencer + Matt | Could be zero NFL revenue in Q2. |
| Dutch auction tech | No engineering timeline set. Roham pushed for proper tech build over manual approach. | Eric Lin | Caitlin Clark initiative depends on this. |
| Disney Q2 forecast | $1.6M Q2 target requires significant recovery. Active buyer count declined to 230-240. | Matt (owes Nick forecast) | Compounds total Q2 miss risk. |
Recently Shipped (Last 30 Days)¶
| Item | Date | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly drop cadence formalized | Mar 2026 | Shifted from weekly to monthly drops. 2.3x revenue improvement. | CMO Triage |
| Positive EV pack pricing | Mar 2026 | W0 conversion at 12.3%. Pack economics working. | CMO Triage |
| NBPA Playoff Picks approval | Late Mar 2026 | Parallel A+B approved: Naeem pushed back on gambling-adjacent framing + design team prepped "Playoff Predictions" rebrand. | PRIORITIES.md |
| Team responsibilities reorganized | Mar 2026 | Team responsibilities were reorganized in March 2026. | CMO Triage |
| Jim Wheaton campaign builder demo | Apr 2026 | WYSIWYG editor on Atlas staging. Demoed to Leon, Spencer, Jordan. 2 PRs pending. | Revenue Pacing Dossier |
| Quest on Atlas | Apr 2026 | First feature live on Atlas in production, no issues. | Revenue Pacing Dossier |
| Deposit match program iteration | Mar 2026 | March campaign ran; April version reverts to 7-day format, lowers minimum to $50. Kenny Zamora designed 15+ financial programs in 6 months ($318K+ payouts, $875K+ deposits influenced). | Revenue Pacing Dossier |
Reconciliation Notes¶
TST on Atlas — urgency discrepancy¶
The Revenue Pacing meeting (Apr 7 morning) established TST-to-Atlas as "immediately begin." The Leadership Sync (Apr 7 afternoon) proposed TST on an Atlas subdomain specifically as an "AI-driven test environment." The afternoon framing is more ambitious — not just migration but autonomous experimentation via AI showrunners. Engineering scope may differ depending on which framing Matt and Eric execute against.
Baller Status timeline drift¶
PRIORITIES.md (Mar 26) lists Baller Status target as "shipped before Playoffs (Apr 18)." The Apr 7 meetings make no mention of Baller Status. Analysis doc review has been pending since early March. Prerequisite inputs (finance points budget, data retention baselines) do not have confirmed delivery dates.
Revenue figures — net vs. gross¶
Q1 2026 revenue is cited as $5.1M (Revenue Pacing Dossier, Apr 7). It is unclear whether this is net or gross. The CMO Strategic Analysis (Apr 1) documented that Q2 2025 buybacks consumed 70.1% of gross revenue. Matt's directive: "always use net revenue, never gross." If the $5.1M is gross and buybacks continued at any scale, the actual net number is lower.
Disney Q2 — contradictory signals¶
Revenue Pacing (Apr 7): Disney $1.6M Q2 target requires significant recovery. Down to 230-240 active buyers. Meanwhile, the Leadership Sync (Apr 7 afternoon) discusses accelerating Disney's May 4th and D23 investments. The growth bets (Rakuten, trading events, Genesis Keys) and the revenue reality (90% user loss, sub-250 buyers) are in tension. The team is focused on identifying higher-impact revenue levers.
NFLPA — scope of impact on NBA roadmap¶
If NFLPA blackout forces zero NFL revenue in Q2 and Disney misses its target, the NBA playoffs campaign becomes the sole revenue source for Q2. The $50-100K playoffs budget may need to scale, and the NPRR 150% target shifts from "growth signal" to "survival requirement."